As happens on the last Sunday of every month, here is the January 2019 Stock Exchange Officein which Adrián Godás and Paco Lodeirowe answer listeners' questions.
On this occasion, we deal with topics such as crowdlending, our profitability in 2018, warrants, the origin of Value Investing FM, inflation, cryptocurrencies or the Nassim Taleb barbell method.
We also talk about companies such as Orezone, Asanko Gold, Paradox Interactive, CD Projekt, EA, ActivisionBlizzard, Cloud Peak Energy, Arcelor, Energy Fuels or Zardoya Otis, and sectors such as robotics, video games or raw materials.
Finally, if you are interested in attending, here is the form to meet in Madrid. 🙂
Tabla de contenido
- 1 Stock Market Consulting - January 2019
- 2 Questions from the January 2019 Stock Exchange Consultation
- 3 About the robotics sector
- 4 About Fouché
- 5 On the criticism of Cobas and Paramés
- 6 About Orezone
- 7 About Cowdlenging
- 8 About Asanko Gold
- 9 About our profitability in 2018
- 10 On investing in video games and CD Projekt
- 11 About EA and Activision
- 12 About ActivisionBlizzard
- 13 On the concentrated portfolio of Ibán Reus
- 14 About Cloud Peak Energy
- 15 About Arcelor
- 16 On how to analyze a management team
- 17 About warrants
- 18 On the origin of Value Investing FM
- 19 About Energy Fuels
- 20 About Zardoya Otis
- 21 Various questions and suggestions from Taiwan
- 22 About the time spent on analysis
- 23 About inflation and cryptocurrencies
- 24 On Nassim Taleb's dumbbell method
- 25 About brokers and speculation
- 26 Story to share with Value Investing FM listeners
- 27 On investment in raw materials
Stock Market Consulting - January 2019
Finally, as always, we would really appreciate it if you would give us 5 stars on iTunes and your like on iVoox, Spotify and YouTube, as you will help us to keep this podcast going and growing.
Questions from the January 2019 Stock Exchange Consultation
About the robotics sector
Very good, I have a book recommendation and a question about investments: how do you see the industrial robotics sector, Fanuc, ABB, Yaskawa, especially Fanuc, which seems the most interesting. The book is "The Art of Thinking Clearly" by Rolf Dobelli on bias and decision making. A hug, you make the best podcast on the internet.
To thank you for having discovered the Value community and companies such as CSU, BUR, Uranium Fever, etc ... I will give you a gift of January cost. I don't think I've ever heard of Stephan Zweig and I think you will like his books. My favorites are: "The world of yesterday" and "Fouché: Portrait of a politician". Fouche was quite a disgusting character, but at the same time tremendously interesting.
On the criticism of Cobas and Paramés
Since you put Cobas down from a donkey, some losing position that you never seem to lose, with all due respect. I follow you every week and I think you are great, but I find it too stupid to Paramés.
(Fernando Moreno Tell us)
I wanted to ask if you have made any decisions to buy or sell Orezone shares in the wake of the murder of Progress Minerals worker Kirk WoodMan in Burkina Faso this week. I ask it not as a recommendation, but to buy sensations, which is the first time I have bought a mine and the same day I buy a miner in the area, this is normal, how should I take it?
Opinion on crowlending?
About Asanko Gold
Good evening Godas, what do you think of Asanko Gold? I guess you will. Thanks a lot, crack.
About our profitability in 2018
Hello, how profitable have you both obtained in your portfolios in 2018? I -17%, it consoles me that some funds value -30%.
On investing in video games and CD Projekt
Hello! Question for the next office, it is for Adrián. What video game companies do you have in your portfolio besides Paradox? What do you think of the Polish CD Projekt? Is it expensive in your opinion, after the descent? Thank you.
About EA and Activision
Hello, I would like to know why EA and Activision, or their managers are so bad, they do not stop releasing successful games
Query for the "Stock Office", how do you see the action of Activision Blizzard? He found a good hole with the disappointment of the Diablo presentation, I get the feeling that now it is at a very good price but I do not know what future releases it may have.
On the concentrated portfolio of Ibán Reus
Given the falls that JD and Facebook have had, I have a doubt. How is your friend Iván Reus in health and spirits?
About Cloud Peak Energy
¿Qué opináis de Cloud Peak Energy? Saludos.
Hi, what do you think of Arcelor? At these prices, don't you see it as a great opportunity?
On how to analyze a management team
Question for beginners where to get the data from the management group and others. Thank you.
Hello, could you talk one day about warrants, because all the people with whom I have talked about them do not recommend them and I think they are interesting.
On the origin of Value Investing FM
Million Questions: How did you meet? How did the idea for the show come about?
About Energy Fuels
For the office: I am looking at Energy Fuels, I positively appreciate that Black rock has entered, it just seemed to me that it was positive, but not Lord. Please explain
About Zardoya Otis
Fundamental Analysis of Zardoya OTIS
ZOT is currently trading at € 6, a profitability x div of 5,33%, with a sector's expectations of gradual growth, without debt, an ROE of 35% and continues to generate cash in the lower part of the cycle, so I think that could be a good opportunity
I have had hundreds of data from the last 13 years (trying to collect their behavior prior to the housing bubble and subsequent explosion)
What surprises me is that it is a company with a constant high PER (why is this?) So applying an average of the PER25 of the last 10 years and assuming that it can earn 18% more (185 million as in the year 2012) in the next 5 years we would have to:
Its target price is € 9,83 (upside 64%), that is, 12,8% per year plus the dividend of 5,33%
The margin is wide for a company currently in the lower part of the Spanish real estate cycle, without debt and with certain possibilities of being overshadowed
I'm awaiting your comments about it
Various questions and suggestions from Taiwan
- How to act in case of crisis? Can you see yourself coming without being Ray Dalio? (I just read "Principles") Just trusting to have good companies and "get through the rain" losing money momentarily and investing more if possible?
- I see that you are always talking about buying or investing more when the companies you like go down, be they the ones you already have or new ones. It seems like common sense to me, but I understand that we are talking about long-term investments (3-5-10 years) and if so, not so much movement fits me, do you constantly reconfigure the portfolio? Do you have a well of money? Maybe Adrián has a gold mine, but when I was 20 years old, I was pelao. : P
- Why are some company shares worth $ 5 and others $ 10.000? Is this decided by the company? Based on what? Any difference when investing?
- Can shares in companies with extremely high-priced shares be purchased apart from a fund or is the minimum purchase 1 share? What does it depend on whether companies decide to divide the share price? Wouldn't it be better to divide it up at a reasonable price so that more people could afford to buy it?
- Is there a limit to the shares that a company puts out for sale?
- A program with suggestions on how to diversify? So many percent, countries, markets, etc.
- A program on Brexit?
(Antonio Egea from Taiwan)
About the time spent on analysis
Good morning, this is my question for the following stock exchange consulting:
¿Cuántas horas le dedicáis al día al análisis de compañías?
(Francisco Javier García López)
About inflation and cryptocurrencies
First I want to thank you for the Podcast “Value Investing FM”. I listened to the podcast on the work of Nassim Nicholas Taleb and it was very good.
I wanted to ask you about a comment someone made on that Taleb podcast. I don't know who it was, he said something about the fact that "the great debt of the states can only be paid with inflation." I would like to ask you if you can get more information on this topic: How could this situation be reached? What indicators would we see? What other alternatives would there be: could they invent something to keep going into debt forever?
I'm going to try to listen to all your chapters of the podcast, but I don't know if I will have time for everyone. If you have already talked about this debt issue, I ask you to tell me what the specific chapter was. This is an issue that worries me in a way. In addition, I have the feeling that analysts and "experts" are not realizing that today there are alternative means of payment that have never existed. I am referring to cryptocurrencies, some of them are a reliable and comfortable medium that is very fast to implement: we only need a mobile phone or computer. Could it be the case that when we see how the currencies are devalued (in a possible future), we citizens abandon those state currencies in favor of cryptocurrencies?
On Nassim Taleb's dumbbell method
I wanted to propose a question for your program. I suppose you know the method of the Taleb barbell: invest the majority in something very safe, not very profitable, and a little in something very risky and tremendously profitable. For you, what investments would have these characteristics?
About brokers and speculation
First, the congratulations and thanks of rigor: the podcast is great and helps above all to give a realistic view on investing in the stock market.
I would like to propose three questions for the podcast:
-If I only have 1000 euros to start investing (well below recommended, I know), what broker do you recommend? Interactive brokers have minimum capital and movements that if they are not reached, in the end you end up paying 10 USD per month.
- Under what circumstances would you make a speculative operation?
- I am sure Paco's course is the best there is right now about Value Investing, but the reality is that it is not within my pocket right now, is there an article, book or free course that allows me to learn to operate with brokers? I say things as basic as opening an account, depositing money, withdrawing it, etc.
(Eva from Salamanca)
Story to share with Value Investing FM listeners
Hello Paco and Adrián.
I would like to share my story with your listeners.
Despite not having a great salary, I have always tried to save as much as I can. As my bank was barely profitable, I searched the internet for how to invest in the stock market. Finally, I decided on a course from a well-known trading expert, which was followed by another complementary course. After not getting the promised results, they replied that it is normal not to "be profitable" at first and recommended other courses to continue improving. Luckily, a friend told me about your podcast and Paco's free course and thanks to this I have realized that I have been scammed, like many others. I would like to thank you for your great work. I will try to contribute my grain of sand to help your podcast continue to exist and continue to grow. 🙂
On investment in raw materials
A question for Adrian.
For 15 - 20% of my current portfolio, what 5 - 6 miners would there be to buy now?
Where in the cycle do you consider raw materials to be?
(Jose Manuel Jiménez Santiago)