Stock Market Consulting – August 2020 (Value Investing FM)

Stock Market Consulting August 2020

Stock exchange consultation for August 2020 in which Adrián Godás and Paco Lodeiro answer questions from listeners.

On this occasion, we deal with topics such as the rise of the Argentine Merval, how to find an investment thesis, work as a stock analyst, the consequences of monetary incentives in the economy, invest in real estate at this time, compounders, a new stock market crash in 2020 , invest in REITs, invest in machinery, find information for company analysis, concentrate portfolio, EV / FCF ratio, NPV calculation and investment advice for airline pilots.

We also talk about listed companies such as Ant Financial, Palantir, Telefónica, Golar LNG, Workhorse Group, Fairfax India Holdings, IAG, DataDog, Eurasia Mining, Hudbay Metals, Zoom, Tesla, ING, Dominion Energy, CD Projekt, Concho Resources, A2 Milk , Vizsla Resources and Adriatic Metals.

Tabla de contenido

  • Contact Form.

    General doubts for August 2020

    On the rises of the Argentine Merval

    Hello Paco and Adrián,

    The first thing is to thank you for your work and for sharing your knowledge and opinions about the investment world with us. In particular, what I value the most is how you look at the investment exercise from the perspective of common sense. My question is the following: as I try that approach from common sense as well, I do not understand why the Merval of Argentina, every time it receives a blow (either internal due to the country's politics, for example, or external like the coronavirus ) recovers and even surpasses himself in a few months. I understand that investors want to keep their money safe from the country's inflation, but I think (from common sense) either that I lack data to understand the equation or that this equation simply has no solution and there is a lot of risk and it is What is your opinion?

    Thank you very much and greetings

    (Borja González from Stuttgart, Germany)

    On making a program with entrepreneurship ideas

    Hello, congratulations on the podcast, my name is José and I am writing to you from Albacete. I would like to know if there is a possibility that you can do a program on entrepreneurship ideas to increase your income and be able to invest with more capital. Thank you

    (José Hernández Sánchez)

    On how to find investment thesis

    A question for the next stock exchange practice. How can I see the investment theses of large investors?

    (Santiago López)

    About working as a stock analyst

    Hello Paco and Adrian from Ireland.

    I love your podcast, I find it very informative and fun.

    One question - I am 25 years old, and I just finished a master's degree in economics and surety, and I am getting the CFA. I just received a job offer that will involve writing for a company related to the world of ETF's. My job goal would be to get a job directly related to the investment process (as "equity research analyst"), but with the job market as it is now, it would surely be very difficult to find that type of job today. My new position will be "remote working", and my question is, would you recommend that I should locate in a place like London, where there will be many opportunities to "network" and get the type of job I want, but it will be very expensive to live there, and to locate in a place like Valencia, for example, where it would be much less expensive, and I could save money and invest a little too, but probably there would be no possibility of interacting with many people who work within the type of company where I want to work? I would love to hear your opinion.

    I hope you have been able to read this message without too much difficulty, since my Spanish has been very rusty. Thank you very much and greetings,

    (Ciaran Murphy from Galway, Ireland)

    On direct monetary incentives in the economy

    I have a good simple question for the stock office.

    I would like you to explain to me well why in these moments of crisis the economy cannot be reactivated by giving, for example, one million euros per citizen (50 million euros would be spent) but instead stimuli worth billions of euros are approved

    I am writing to you from Salamanca, and by the way, if you pass through the area you are invited to eat in the main square so that you can enjoy how beautiful it is.

    Thank you machines!

    PS: You will have news of Me when you make me a millionaire with Burford, hehehehe

    (José Verbenas from Salamanca)

    About investing in real estate right now

    Successes in their work

    I would like to know if in these current moments of crisis due to the covid-19 pandemic it is correct to buy a real estate

    Thank you


    (Andrés Bernal Hernández from Colombia)

    About compounders

    Hello, for the next Consultorio Bursatil podcast, I would like to ask a question:

    You talk a lot about Constellation Software, and you put a lot of emphasis on the issue of compounders values. Could you give a list of other values ​​that are compounders and explain them a bit?

    Thank you very much, greetings from Altea.

    (Jeremías Martinez of that Altea, Alicante)

    On a new stock market crash in 2020

    Hello, why do you say there will be a crash this year similar to March?

    (Nabil Karaki)

    About investing in REITs

    Good Morning. I am Xavier from Barcelona but I am writing and listening to you from Milan where I am studying a master. My question is what you think of STORE the American REIT. I have read a thread on twitter about her. And what do you think of REITs as an investment vehicle to protect against inflation.

    (Xavier López Abiol)

    On investing in machinery

    Hi Paco and Adrián,

    First of all, thank you and congratulate you for the work you are doing. Very educational and interesting. Although a bit late I'm glad I found you. So now listening to all the chapters, I have a binge of you that I do not know if I will end up dreaming of Lord Excavator! Hahaha

    I have two questions, one for each:

    Adrián, now that the MP are at good prices, so the mining companies will be managing higher margins, you think they will invest in better machinery. I say this thinking of Caterpillar or other auxiliaries, can the following benefit?


    On the effects of capital injections from central banks

    Paco, the cycle theory of the Austrian school (Adrián mentioned a video of a class by Huerta de Soto), says if I'm not mistaken that when consumption falls, capital moves to the primary sectors, further away from consumption. Do you think that with the capital injection that the Central Banks are carrying out, this movement would continue? W Buffet looks like he's doing it, right? Gas, gold, ...

    Guys a hug and congratulations again!


    Where to find information for business analytics

    Hi Paco, I would like to know where I can find information about the companies and how to find out about them. Thank you very much, you do an exceptional job and help many people to get started.

    (José María Coba Jiménez)

    On concentrating the portfolio

    First, I congratulate you on the podcast, you are very good and I listen to you often, a shame that I was not able to be in Madrid in February to meet you personally but we will surely have other occasions.

    Within my portfolio I have about 12 stocks and over time Baba (I bought it at 170) and Apple (I bought it at 284), have a weight of almost 38%. I still believe in both but I think having a 38% stake in two stocks can be risky. What is your opinion?

    (Andrea Grinta from Valencia)

    About the EV / FCF

    In the podcast it is said many times that a key parameter to see if a company is cheap or less is the EV / FCF.

    What I don't understand is how once this value is calculated, is it applied to see if the company is cheap or not?

    (Andrea Grinta from Valencia)

    About calculating NPV

    Good afternoon, I have a question regarding the valuations that are made of mines. It is usually said to have an NPV of so many millions of dollars. But always next to the NPV there is a number that I don't know what it refers to or what it means. For example, Adriatic has an NPV8. Others an NPV5. Is it the number of children the CEO has? Is that number the lottery refund? Greetings from Pucela

    Good morning, I'm the crazy pucelano from before. I have another question regarding the price that is taken from the raw material when making an NPV in a scooping study, PFS or DFS. Is the price of the raw material taken at the time of publication? Is an average value taken from the last month? Is Aramis Fuster called to find out the price of a raw material in the future? With the large changes that have occurred in the price of raw materials this last year, it makes me doubt if there is some kind of standard measure in writing, or simply each company takes the value it wants (or Doña Aramis or Rappel indicate )

    (Anonymous from Pucela)

    On investment tips for airline pilots

    You have put examples of investment for people specialized in computers, games, engineering etc.

    What investment advice would you give us airline pilots?

    With how bad aviation is today with the covid I can't think of where my competence could apply.

    Another question, what do you think of airlines today? Any one that stands out from the rest?

    (TheMileZombies from Tavira, Portugal)

    Doubts about companies and sectors August 2020

    About Ant Financial and Palantir

    Hello Paco and Adrián. I would like to know your opinion, if you have it already formed, about the future IPOs of the companies: Ant Group, the fintech of the Alibaba group and the Palantir company

    (Luis Baseiro)

    About Telefonica

    Hello friends, I am a faithful follower of the podcast. Congratulations on the work done, keep it up. I would like to know your opinion about Telefónica, in my opinion the company is on the right track, although after the disaster of recent years it will take a long time. Do you think 3,5 euros is a good entry price? Thank you.

    (Miguel Berbegal)

    About Golar LNG

    Hello! Congratulations on continuing to make us have a good time, learn and earn money. Lately I'm looking at Golar LNG (GLNG ticker): Natural gas sector, is considered clean energy (potential to attract ESG funds), important growth in Brazil and China (and likely extension to other countries), works largely for long-term contracts , good management team, Peter Lynch as one of the investors, price of natural gas rising like foam ... Could it be one of those balls you talk about? It is very difficult for me to value it, I have found valuations between 26 (Gabriel Castro's valuation) and 38 dollars (Cobas) and a potential revaluation of 20% per year without leverage and 40% with leverage. What is your opinion? You answer what you answer, know that the real ball ... is you! Big hug!

    (Pedro Barbero)

    About Workhorse Group

    Hello, good morning, what is your opinion on the Workhorse Group?

    It is a company with high expectations in the growth of its business due to the sector in which it is (manufacturing electric delivery vehicles).

    Apart from being a sector with many expectations (which I don't know how to take, whether good or bad), the company is characterized by its patents, by using a delivery and delivery system in shipments from drones, it seemed a very interesting. However, as most of the sector still does not have benefits, and it is difficult for me to assess it by fundamentals because there are none, I am also a beginner, so it is even more complex.

    In principle it also seems to have complications when it comes to financing, it is another point that I do not like.

    Finally, they still have a pending contract to get 3 weeks before the elections, in which they have a good chance of winning it, it is a production plant in Ohio that closed general motors with 3.000 employees, a decision that Donald trump did not like , so he is interested in Workhorse keeping the plant and thus winning votes in that US state.


    About Fairfax India Holdings

    Hello, first of all, thank you for the service you give to the investment community. I don't know if this is the right channel for it, but I would like to suggest that you speak in one of your next programs about “compounders” and investment holding companies capable of creating value over time. I have a special interest in Fairfax Indian Holding, I understand that at current prices and with the growth dynamics expected for India in the coming decades it can be a very interesting investment. I would like to know your opinion. Thanks in advance.

    (Lucas from Zaragoza)

    About IAG

    I would like to know what you think of IAG today. I have the shares bought at 4 euros, do you think it's time to take losses? I know you are not a devotee of this company, but they are shares acquired before listening to your podcasts. I am consulting you especially because there is a rumor about a capital increase in it shortly, and I have doubts about whether or not to go to it and how it may affect those of us who have already invested in the company.

    (Jose Antonio Leon Moro from the Canary Islands)

    About DataDog

    What do you think of $ DDOG? I have been using their products on a daily basis for years (in the companies I work for) and they are terrific, and it seems that the software industry does not stop growing. They have also just presented news. But I just got started on the value thing so I don't have a good opinion of the company yet, and it is true that they went up a lot post-Covid. so maybe they have to correct. I would love to know your vision "from outside" (not users).

    Thanks a lot in advance, and of course for the podcast, I have a lot of fun with it and learn by the way.

    (Diego Toharia from Barcelona)

    About Eurasia Mining PLC

    Buenos días

    First of all, I wanted to thank you for your excellent ideas on Rockrose and Adriatic Metals that you shared with all your listeners.

    I would be very grateful if you could comment on something in your Stock Market office about the EURASIA MINING PLC (US ticket) share that is listed on the LSE.

    Thank you very much and greetings.


    About Hudbay Minerals

    One more that I am addicted to your podcast, Congratulations…. Do you know Hudbay Minerals? in 2007 it was at $ 27, now at $ 4 ... I read the Q2 earnings conference call and they have an important catalyst with some land to explore ... it's very cheap


    About Zoom, Tesla, ING and Domion Energy

    Hello Paco and Adrián, I am a loyal follower of yours both in the good with Rockrose and in the bad Burford (I invested in both) I wanted to ask you about 4 Zoom and Tesla investments to invest short since I see them extremely overvalued and 2 to invest long ING (for having a better cost structure than traditional banking) and Dominion Energy (for the supposed increase in gas demand in the future and being a company that is resilient to the coronavirus). What do you think?

    Thank you very much!

    (Eduardo Olivas from Madrid)

    About your bet against Flavio de Andrómeda

    Hello, I am Imanol and I write from Pamplona. This is a request for Adrián for the following stock exchange consultancy: About a year ago you bet with one of the managers of Andromeda (I don't remember which one) that Cyberpunk 2077 was not going to sell as much as Witcher 3. I would like you to comment on your feelings towards this bet, now that the game's exit date is near. I respect the people of Andromeda a lot, but I think it was an unfair bet, which you accepted perhaps without thinking too much. I say that it is unfair for two reasons: 1. the number of gamers worldwide grows around 5% per year, which are headwinds of your bet. 2. Witcher 3 was up for grabs that came out in 2015 on the mid-generation PS4-XboxOne consoles. Cyberpunk is going to be released as an intergenerational game for PS4-PS5-XboxOne-SeriesX (obviating that both games were released on PC). This means more headwinds on your bet. Adrián, I think that looking at these data, it would be fair for you to give up on your bet and pay him the dinner that you bet on. Think that it is the only way that you will win: you save the devaluation of your money for dinner in 3 months of inflation. By the way, the game looks beastly in the latest gameplay revealed. LONG CD Projekt.!

    (Imanol Armendáriz Bravo)

    About Concho Resources

    A month ago I did an analysis and bought CXO (Concho Resources). It seemed like a company with a lot of potential in a situation we are in, do you know it? What do you think?

    Thanks and a big hug

    (Andrea Grinta from Valencia)

    About A2 Milk

    Hello! I have two questions for the office. What do you think of A2 Milk? On their website they indicate that they are listed in Australia and New Zealand but I see them in Frankfurt. Why are there companies that are listed in Frankfurt and do not indicate it on their website? What happens if I buy these shares?

    (Álex from Barcelona)

    About Vizsla Resources

    Adrián do you know vizsla resources? Greetings


    Comment on all in at Adriatic

    Good morning, champions, I have felt tremendously identified with the last advice. When fear was breathing in the air, at the end of March or beginning of April, I got all the artillery in Adriatic, at an average price of 1. Right now that I have more than doubled I am very happy, I have not sold or an action, although I have been tempted, since with the gains I could completely pay off my mortgage. The expectations until the first quarter of 2021 could not be better and I stand firm by holding the shares of Adriatic as if it were my life. Just thank you for showing me the way of value investing.


    About Adriatic Metals

    Hi ... as the only fan who has slapped hard with Rockrose Energy for entering late. I have doubts when it comes to entering Adriatic Metals right now, is the current price a good entry price or have I missed the party again? Thanks for your response

    (Juan Carlos Carrera Ruiz)

    On how Adriatic Metals will create value for shareholders

    I have been a follower of your podcasts for a few months, a shareholder of Adriatic Metals and I wanted to ask you what you think will be the way that this mining company will use to reverse the value of the FCF expected in the coming years to its shareholders. Cash and consequently share price, dividend, one thousand of the two.

    Thanks for the answer in some of your next podcasts.

    (Jose Luis Sánchez from Murcia)

    On Sandfire's lawsuit against Adriatic

    Hi Cracks, I am Marc from Barcelona, ​​I would like to know what Lord thinks of Sandfire Resources' lawsuit on Adriatic metals (just smoke or can we run out of these 4M shares?), And the resignations of Milos Bosnjakovic and John Richards. What is your opinion of the latest acquisition of Tethyan Resources in early May? Thank you very much and congratulations on the excellent Podcast.

    (Marc from Barcelona)